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Abrupt Ecosystem Collapse
Posted By Robert Hunziker On April
15, 2020
Photograph
by Nathaniel St. Clair
A new
study in Nature (April 2020) casts a
disturbing light on the prospects of abrupt ecosystem collapse. The report
analyzes the probabilities of collapsing ecosystems en masse, and not simply
the loss of individual species. (Source: Trisos, C.H. et al, The Projected
Timing of Abrupt Ecological Disruption From Climate Change, Nature,
April 8, 2020)
The
paper states that a high percentage of species will be exposed to harmful
climate conditions at about the same time, potentially leading to sudden and
catastrophic die-offs of biodiversity. If high greenhouse gas emissions remain
in place, abrupt events are forecast to begin before 2030 in tropical oceans
and spread to tropical forests and temperate regions over time.
Without
doubt, no nation is prepared for the consequences of collapsing ecosystems nor
are they doing anything to avert it. Yet, it is all about the quintessence of
life on the planet.
There
is a high probability that fossil fuel emissions will not be curtailed enough
in enough time to prevent abrupt ecosystem collapse(s). Sufficient mitigation
efforts to slowdown carbon emissions are not happening, not even close.
Regrettably
the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects future usage of fossil fuels
that look an awful lot like “the reverse” of rapid emission mitigation with
plans afoot by the U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other major producers to
increase fossil fuel production by 120% by 2030, and China and India have
elaborate, surprisingly huge, plans to increase usage of coal. All of which
portends big-big-big trouble down the pike. Of course, it’s a crushing blow to
the Paris ‘15 climate accord. (Sources: Dangerous Levels of Warming Locked in
by Planned Jump in fossil Fuels Output, National Geographic, Nov. 20, 2019 and
BBC News d/d November 20, 2019: “Climate Change: China Coal Surge Threatens
Paris Targets” and IEA)
Problematically,
CO2 emissions, the primary catalyst for global warming, are on a 62-year
semi-parabolic uptrend (Keeling Curve) year by year higher, never lower. The
recent Mauna Loa Observatory (est. 1958) monthly average for CO2 emissions for
March 2020 registered 414.50 ppm versus 411.97 ppm in March 2019.
For
perspective, in 1963 it was 322.28 ppm. In 2000 it was 368.74 ppm. Notice: It
took 37 years from 1963 to 2000 to increase by 45 ppm. Since 2000, it’s only
taken 20 years to increase by that same amount, 45 ppm. Meaning, turbo-charged
greenhouse gas emissions are compressing the timeline to ever-higher levels.
Bad news.
More
to the point, worldwide carbon emissions were 36.8 billion tons in 2019. By way
of an historical context, when nature traversed its own course 55 million years
ago similar levels of emissions, in the aggregate, cranked temperatures up by
5C, but it took centuries and centuries to achieve. That level of temperature
today would take civilization down to its knees.
Back
in the day, 55 million years ago, the annualized rate of carbon emissions by
nature on its own accord was 1.1 billion tons per year but spread out over a
few thousand years. Today world economies emit more than 36 billion tons per
year. That’s as much carbon in 1 year as 30 years of emissions generated by
nature on its own 55 million years ago, when sea levels rose by 50 feet. Hmm.
More
to the point, today’s rapid growth 30xs faster does not allow time for
ecosystems to adapt, especially when compared to the drawn-out affair of a few
thousand years 55 million years ago. Of significance, back then ecosystems had
enough time to adjust to a hotter planet.
Nowadays
ecosystems have no chance of adjusting because of hyper-speed emissions thirty
times faster than the paleoclimate record of 55 million years ago. In turn,
that prompts some level of contemplation about the bitter truth that the planet
was not designed for 7 billion people in the first instance, but that’s a much
longer story.
In
fact, clarifying the point even further, the Human Footprint consumes 1.75
Earths. Therefore, and because the biosphere is overused and overly abused, at
its margins the planet is ultra-sensitized to the repercussions of human
activity. In turn, this gives rise to collapsing ecosystems that are crucial
for life support throughout the planet. Oops! Without viable ecosystems, life
ends.
Meantime,
the initial stages, or early warning signals, of abrupt ecosystem collapse are
already happening in real time. A prime example is the Great Barrier Reef
suffering its worst coral bleaching on record because of too much planetary
heat. February of 2020 saw the most extreme ocean temperatures at the Great
Barrier Reef since records began in 1900.
Thus,
the world’s largest living organism has experienced three devastating
bleachings in only five years. Metaphorically, that’s kinda like a glittering
red neon rapidly blinking light extending across the sky above the entire
2,300-kilometre (1400-mile) Great Barrier Reef flashing the words: Help! Save
the planet!
Consider
this, for the first time in recorded history severe bleaching, which kills
coral outright caused by excessive levels of heat, hit all three major regions
of the Great Barrier Reef, the northern, central, and southern portions. That’s
unprecedented and should scare the daylights out of anybody and everybody. It’s
a startling example of anthropogenic-generated global heat at work at the
margins of the planet and likely marks the beginning of ecosystems collapsing
en masse.
“A
survey of 1,036 reefs in the Great Barrier Reef over the last two weeks of
March revealed the most widespread bleaching event on record.” (Source: Theresa
Machemer, The Great Barrier Reef Is now Facing Most Widespread Bleaching Event
Yet, Smithsonian Magazine April 9, 2020)
There
is no stronger signal of serious trouble for the planet than 3 consecutive
massive bleachings of the Great Barrier Reef within only 5 years, as ocean
temperatures hit all-time recorded highs. That’s a no-brainer.
The
implications are downright scary. The fact that collapse is already underway in
real time today should be enough evidence to bring world leadership together to
take advantage of “coronavirus-forced downtime” to reorganize the world economy
around planet-friendly eco economics and drop, like a hot potato, the
neoliberal brand of capitalism of the past 40 years.
But
still, getting real, what can be done?
Only
a worldwide Marshall Plan can save civilization, as it is currently
constituted, but maybe not, some say it’s too late. Still, there’s no competent
leadership, with vision, in the world to take charge. After all, high-end
capitalism forged a new brand of leadership, as it depends upon iron-fisted
tyrannical leadership to survive its obvious foibles, and there are many!
However,
even in a world of perfect leadership, or even imperfect leadership but smart
and informed, and based upon real science, a sober-minded (studious and
logical) leader would toss out neoliberalism in favor of eco economics in a NY
minute as a rescue-line to the planet.
Meanwhile,
according to the above-referenced Trisos ecosystem study: “Keeping global
warming below 2°C effectively ‘flattens the curve’ of how this risk to
biodiversity will accumulate over the century,” said co-author Dr Alex Pigot
from UCL, “providing more time for species and ecosystems to adapt to the
changing climate.” (Source: Climate Change Could Abruptly Alter Biodiversity,
University of Cape Town News, April 8, 2020)
Since
studying climate change/global warming for over a decade, it’s readily apparent
that it is careening down a path of doomsday-type events. Its trajectory is
clearly up, up, and away. Accordingly, horrific problems could ensue,
unexpectedly, for example, abrupt loss of adequate food resources due to
mid/lower latitude agriculture collapse under the stress of too much global
heat.
Ecosystem
collapse is already evident. The Fertile Crescent (Middle East) where Western
Civilization started, is rapidly disappearing as a breadbasket because of: (1)
severe droughts and (2) stupid human mismanagement of natural resources.
Portions of eastern and southern Mediterranean landmass are drying up faster
than anywhere else on the planet. Hence, eco migrants commit to arduous
pathways to Europe, in time morphing into a retro Mad Max world.
A
planet that transitions from a healthy source of natural resources to a bruised
limp shell of its former self is potentially much more deadly than coronavirus,
which is merely one more example of an abrupt happenstance (Black Swan) that
nobody expected, as it happened all of a sudden, out of the blue.
Abrupt
ecosystem collapse is similar to coronavirus in some aspects but dreadfully
different and much more sinister in many others.
Postscript: “The
main finding that surprised us was how much biodiversity is at risk in the
first half of this century,” said Dr Christopher Trisos, senior researcher at
the African Climate & Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town
(UCT). “The risk doesn’t accumulate gradually, but can go from low risk to high
risk within a decade. This abruptness of risk was really a shocking finding for
us.”
Article printed from CounterPunch.org: https://www.counterpunch.org
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