Published on Portside (https://portside.org)
Why Pat
McCrory Lost and What It Means in Trump's America
Tom Jensen
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Public Policy Polling
Pat
McCrory's now official defeat in the race for Governor of North Carolina has
real implications for the progressive movement nationally in the era of Trump.
The
dominant reason given for McCrory's defeat will be the unpopularity of HB2, and
certainly that played an important role. In August we found that only 30% of
voters in the state supported it, and that McCrory's handling of the issue made
them less likely to vote for him by a 12 point margin. If he'd vetoed it, he
very well might have been reelected.
But the
seeds of McCrory's defeat really were planted by the Moral Monday movement in
the summer of 2013, just months after McCrory took office.
McCrory
really could claim somewhat of a mandate when he was elected. He won by 12
points in 2012 even as Mitt Romney carried the state by only 2 points, and our
polling found him winning independent voters 2:1 and winning about 25% of
Democrats. He was seen as being a different kind of Republican, and he got
significant crossover support because of that.
But despite
going into office with all that popularity and goodwill, he had a negative
approval rating by July of 2013, just 8 months after his triumphant election.
And he stayed with a negative approval rating every single month until this
October in our polling- 39 months in a row of an under water approval rating.
Only positive reactions to his handling of Hurricane Matthew got him back in
positive territory at the very end, but in the end hostility towards his tenure
as Governor was deeply ingrained enough in voters that it only allowed him to
lose by a smaller margin than he would have if not for the Hurricane.
What
happened in the summer of 2013 to make McCrory so permanently unpopular? He
allowed himself to be associated with a bunch of unpopular legislation, and
progressives hit back HARD, in a way that really caught voters' attention and
resonated with them.
Medicaid
Expansion? 56% of voters wanted it to move forward, only 26% wanted it blocked.
Sneaking in
abortion legislation by putting it in a bill about motorcycle safety? 8% of
voters supported that, 80% opposed it.
Guns in
bars? 17% in support, 73% opposed. Guns in parks? 29% in support, 65% opposed.
Guns on college campuses? 25% in support, 69% opposed.
Eliminate
the Earned Income Tax Credit? Only 30% of voters wanted to do that, 42%
thought it should be kept.
Cut
unemployment benefits? Only 29% of voters agreed with changes in the law, 55%
were opposed.
Reduce the
early voting period in North Carolina by a week? Just 33% of voters wanted to
do that, 59% were against it.
Straight
party ticket voting? 68% of voters wanted it continued, only 21% wanted it
eliminated.
McCrory
spearheaded or went along with all of this. And he might have gotten away with
it without much impact on his image. Most voters don't pay close attention to
state government.
But the
Moral Monday movement pushed back hard. Its constant visibility forced all of
these issues to stay in the headlines. Its efforts ensured that voters in the
state were educated about what was going on in Raleigh, and as voters became
aware of what was going on, they got mad. All those people who had seen McCrory
as a moderate, as a different kind of Republican, had those views quickly
changed. By July McCrory had a negative approval rating- 40% of voters
approving of him to 49% who disapproved. By September it was all the way down
to 35/53, and he never did fully recover from the damage the rest of his term.
Moral
Mondays became a very rare thing- a popular protest movement. In August 2013 we
found 49% of voters had a favorable opinion of the protesters to only 35% with
an unfavorable opinion of them. And their message was resonating- 50% of voters
in the state felt state government was causing North Carolina national
embarrassment to only 34% who disagreed with that notion.
Pushing
back hard on McCrory worked. The seeds of his final defeat today were very much
planted in the summer of 2013. And it's a lesson for progressives in dealing
with Trump. Push back hard from day one. Be visible. Capture the public's
attention, no matter what you have to do to do it. Don't count on the media to
do it itself because the media will let you down. The protesters in North
Carolina, by making news in their own right week after week after week, forced
sustained coverage of what was going on in Raleigh. And even though it was
certainly a long game, with plenty more frustration in between, those efforts
led to change at the polls 42 months after they really started.
Keep
Pounding.
Donations can be sent
to the Baltimore Nonviolence Center, 325 E. 25th St., Baltimore, MD
21218. Ph: 410-323-1607; Email: mobuszewski [at] verizon.net. Go to http://baltimorenonviolencecenter.blogspot.com/
"The master class
has always declared the wars; the subject class has always fought the battles.
The master class has had all to gain and nothing to lose, while the subject
class has had nothing to gain and everything to lose--especially their
lives." Eugene Victor Debs
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