http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article23601.htm
Top Things you Think You Know about
Juan Cole:
Information Clearing House October 01, 2009
Thursday is a fateful day for the world, as the US, other members of the
United Nations Security Council, and
bid to resolve outstanding issues. Although Iranian president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad had earlier attempted to put the nuclear issue off the
bargaining table, this rhetorical flourish was a mere opening gambit and
nuclear issues will certainly dominate the talks. As Henry Kissinger pointed
out, these talks are just beginning and there are highly unlikely to be any
breakthroughs for a very long time. Diplomacy is a marathon, not a sprint.
But on this occasion, I thought I'd take the opportunity to list some things
that people tend to think they know about
Belief:
Reality:
US or
true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.
Belief:
growing threat to world peace.
Reality:
Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita spending on defense
is tiny compared to these others, since they are much smaller countries with
regard to population.
other country in the Persian Gulf region with the exception of the
Belief:
Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an aggressive act
of war on
strike' to which the country has adhered. The Iranian president has
explicitly said that
Belief: But didn't President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten to 'wipe
Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini to the
effect that "this Occupation regime over
of time" (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv
shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch
missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime will
collapse, just as the
Belief: But aren't Iranians Holocaust deniers?
Actuality: Some are, some aren't. Former president Mohammad Khatami has
castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust,
which he called "the crime of Nazism." Many educated Iranians in the regime
are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust. In any case, despite
what propagandists imply, neither Holocaust denial (as wicked as that is)
nor calling
Belief:
program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.
Actuality:
it says it is trying to produce fuel for future civilian nuclear reactors to
generate electricity. All Iranian leaders deny that this site is for weapons
production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly
inspected it and found no weapons program.
transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the
CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program. The 2007
National Intelligence Estimate by 16
CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed with fair confidence that
debriefings of defecting nuclear scientists, as well as on the documents
they brought out, in addition to US signals intelligence from
Iranian intentions, all of them were badly wrong about
Weapons of Mass Destruction and
Curveball, a drunk Iraqi braggart.
Belief: The West recently discovered a secret Iranian nuclear weapons plant
in a mountain near
Actuality:
Energy Agency that it had begun work on a second, civilian nuclear
enrichment facility near
it has not gone hot, so technically
Non-Proliferation Treaty, though it did break its word to the IAEA that it
would immediately inform the UN of any work on a new facility.
pledged to allow the site to be inspected regularly by the IAEA, and if it
honors the pledge, as it largely has at the Natanz plant, then
produce nuclear weapons at the site, since that would be detected by the
inspectors. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted on Sunday that
could not produce nuclear weapons at Natanz precisely because it is being
inspected. Yet American hawks have repeatedly demanded a strike on Natanz.
Belief: The world should sanction
enrichment research program but also because the current regime stole June's
presidential election and brutally repressed the subsequent demonstrations.
Actuality:
Belief: Isn't the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine
of mutally assured destruction just would not work with them?
Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why
haven't they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of
both
contrast,
unbalanced is an old propaganda trick. The
opposed to
are intrinsically irrational. This kind of talk is a form of racism.
Belief: The international community would not have put sanctions on
and would not be so worried, if it were not a gathering nuclear threat.
Actuality: The centrifuge technology that
open-ended. In the old days, you could tell which countries might want a
nuclear bomb by whether they were building light water reactors (unsuitable
for bomb-making) or heavy-water reactors (could be used to make a bomb). But
with centrifuges, once you can enrich to 5% to fuel a civilian reactor, you
could theoretically feed the material back through many times and enrich to
90% for a bomb. However, as long as centrifuge plants are being actively
inspected, they cannot be used to make a bomb. The two danger signals would
be if
facility. The latter task would be extremely difficult, however, as
demonstrated by the CIA's discovery of the
from satellite photos. Nuclear installations, especially centrifuge ones,
consume a great deal of water, construction materiel, and so forth, so that
constructing one in secret is a tall order. In any case, you can't attack
and destroy a country because you have an intuition that they might be doing
something illegal. You need some kind of proof. Moreover,
and
refused to sign the NPT and then went for broke to get a bomb; and nothing
at all has been done to any of them by the UNSC.
Donations can be sent to the
"The master class has always declared the wars; the subject class has always fought the battles. The master class has had all to gain and nothing to lose, while the subject class has had nothing to gain and everything to lose--especially their lives." Eugene Victor Debs
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