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Inaccurate Metadata Analysis Used to Kill Thousands in US Drone
Strikes
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By David Brown
Global Research, February 24, 2016 World Socialist Web Site |
According to leaked
documents, the Obama administration’s use of metadata to identify and target
terrorists in Pakistan would misidentify over 99,000 innocent people.
The SKYNET program, named
after the antagonist in the Terminator movie series, is used
to examine the cellular network metadata of over 55 million people in
Pakistan and flag suspicious patterns to target for “counter-terrorism”
operations like kidnapping, interrogation or drone assassination.
The
drone assassination program, begun in 2002 under Republican president George
W. Bush, has been greatly expanded under Democratic president Barack Obama.
The Bureau of Investigative Journalism conservatively estimates the death
toll from these targeted killings at over 3,200.
An
unknown portion of these strikes were based on automated programs like
SKYNET. According to the former director of the National Security
Administration (NSA) as well as the CIA, retired General Michael Hayden, “We
kill people based on metadata.”
Documents reviewing the
metadata targeting program were leaked by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden
and then published by The Intercept last year. Patrick Ball,
a director of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, told Ars Technica in
an interview that the methods used by the NSA in SKYNET are “ridiculously
optimistic” and “completely bullshit.”
In
order to process the records for millions of cell phone users the NSA uses a
process called “machine learning,” where the computer is fed a set of “known
terrorists” and then looks for new targets by how closely an individual’s
behavior matches the known set. It is essentially the same method used by
corporations to target Internet advertising.
Overall
the NSA examines 80 different variables such as travel patterns,
co-travelers, SIM card swapping, phone contacts and turning off a phone which
the NSA sees as an attempt to evade surveillance. The assumption of the NSA
is that the behavior of “terrorists” significantly differs from innocent
people in consistent ways.
The
method the NSA uses to measure success however is fundamentally unsound. To
test the program, the NSA began by taking a random sample of 100,000 people
and adding seven “known terrorists.” The NSA then gave the program six of the
individuals marked as terrorists to analyze and tasked it with finding the
seventh. The exceedingly small seed of “known terrorists,” makes the results
of the test unreliable.
This
is combined with the fact that the “terrorists” tested were handpicked as
belonging to the same network, while the ordinary people were randomly
selected, removing a significant portion of their social network from the
test. Applying the same program to the full database would result in a
significant increase in false positives.
In
the leaked documents, when the NSA applied their method to the full data set
of 55 million, only one of the “known terrorists” was in the top 100
suspects, and only five of them were in the top 500.
According
to the NSA slides, they expect to falsely categorize 0.18 percent of the
sample as terrorists. This may sound like an exceedingly small number, but
when applied to the data of 55 million people, it comes out to 99,000
innocent people wrongly accused. This is much larger than the Haqqani
Network, one of the largest groups targeted by the US which is estimated to
have anywhere from a 4,000 to 12,000 members, significantly smaller than the
number of expected false positives.
The absurdity of the NSA’s
method is exposed in a slide that presents Al-Jazeera ’s
longstanding Islamabad bureau chief, Ahmed Zaidan, as the highest rated
target. The top secret slide lists him, in sharp contradiction, as a member
of both al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood, two opposed organizations. As a
journalist, Zaidan has traveled extensively through Pakistan speaking to all
sides of various conflicts.
Disturbingly,
Zaidan appears to have already been assigned a watch list number as an
al-Qaeda member before being flagged by SKYNET, demonstrating significant
inaccuracies in the NSA’s set of “known terrorists.”
It is
unclear what steps, if any, exist between SKYNET flagging someone as a
terrorist and someone being targeted for drone assassination. What is clear
from Hayden’s statement is that some people are killed based on metadata and
the use of programs like SKYNET.
Within
Pakistan where SKYNET operates, the drone assassination program is run with
fewer restrictions than in other countries. In 2013, Obama ostensibly
tightened the guidelines for targeted killings requiring the CIA to have
evidence that the target was an “imminent threat” and that they have “near-certainty”
that no civilians would be hit. The drone program in Pakistan has been
operating under a waiver that explicitly removes those guidelines.
Overall
the drone assassination program is thoroughly brutal and inaccurate. Other
leaked documents showed that out of 235 people killed by Operation Haymaker
in Afghanistan between 2012 and 2013, only 35 were targets; the rest were
bystanders.
Obama
has relied heavily on assassination during his presidency in order to avoid
the political difficulties of actually trying people accused of terrorism.
Many of those detained for terrorism at Guantanamo are being held on
circumstantial or inadmissible evidence gathered from CIA torture or illegal
NSA spying.
According
to the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Michael
Flynn: “The drone campaign right now is really only about killing. When you
hear the phrase ‘capture/kill’ capture is actually a misnomer.”
Increasingly,
the Obama administration is relying on metadata and signals intelligence for
identifying “terrorists” and selecting drone targets. In Somalia and Yemen,
over half of the intelligence used to select targets is based on electronic
signals like phone calls that do not directly identify the target.
The
Department of Defense announced last August that it was going to expand its
drone program by 50 percent over the next four years and Italy has recently
agreed to allow US drones to operate out of a base in Sicily to target Libya.
Enormous civilian casualties can be expected from the growth of these
mechanized killing operations.
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Disclaimer: The contents of this article are of
sole responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research on
Globalization will not be responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect
statement in this article.
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Copyright © David Brown, Global Research, 2016
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master class has always declared the wars; the subject class has always fought
the battles. The master class has had all to gain and nothing to lose, while
the subject class has had nothing to gain and everything to lose--especially
their lives." Eugene Victor Debs
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