Published on Portside (https://portside.org)
The Future of Climate Change Is Widespread Civil War
Michael T. Klare
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
The Nation
At the end of November, delegations from nearly 200 countries will
convene in Paris for what is billed as the most important climate meeting ever
held. Officially known [1] as
the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (the 1992 treaty [2] that
designated that phenomenon a threat to planetary health and human survival),
the Paris summit will be focused on the adoption of measures that would limit
global warming to less than catastrophic levels. If it fails, world
temperatures in the coming decades are likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius (3.5
degrees Fahrenheit), the maximum amount [3] most
scientists believe the Earth can endure without experiencing irreversible
climate shocks, including soaring temperatures [4] and
a substantial rise [5] in
global sea levels.
A failure to cap carbon emissions guarantees another result as
well, though one far less discussed. It will, in the long run, bring on not
just climate shocks, but also worldwide instability [6],
insurrection, and warfare. In this sense, COP-21 should be considered not just
a climate summit but a peace conference—perhaps the most significant peace
convocation in history.
To grasp why, consider the latest scientific findings on the
likely impacts of global warming, especially the 2014
report [7] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
When first published, that report attracted worldwide media coverage for
predicting that unchecked climate change will result in [8] severe
droughts, intense storms, oppressive heat waves, recurring crop failures, and
coastal flooding, all leading to widespread death and deprivation. Recent
events, including a punishing drought in California and crippling heat waves in
Europe and Asia, have focused more attention on just such impacts. The IPCC
report, however, suggested that global warming would have devastating impacts
of a social and political [9] nature
as well, including economic decline, state collapse, civil strife, mass
migrations, and sooner or later resource wars [10].
These predictions have received far less attention, and yet the
possibility of such a future should be obvious enough since human institutions,
like natural systems, are vulnerable to climate change. Economies are going to
suffer when key commodities—crops, timber, fish, livestock—grow scarcer, are
destroyed, or fail. Societies will begin to buckle under the strain of economic
decline and massive refugee flows. Armed conflict may not be the most immediate
consequence of these developments, the IPCC notes, but combine the effects of
climate change with already existing poverty, hunger, resource scarcity,
incompetent and corrupt governance, and ethnic, religious, or national
resentments, and you’re likely to end up with bitter conflicts over access to
food, water, land, and other necessities of life.
The Coming of Climate Civil Wars
Such wars would not arise in a vacuum. Already existing stresses
and grievances would be heightened, enflamed undoubtedly by provocative acts
and the exhortations of demagogic leaders. Think of the current outbreak of
violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories, touched off by clashes [11] over
access to the Temple Mount [12] in
Jerusalem (also known as the Noble Sanctuary) and the inflammatory rhetoric of
assorted leaders. Combine economic and resource deprivation with such
situations and you have a perfect recipe for war.
The necessities of life are already unevenly distributed across
the planet. Often the divide between those with access to adequate supplies of
vital resources and those lacking them coincides with long-term schisms along
racial, ethnic, religious, or linguistic lines. The Israelis and Palestinians,
for example, harbor deep-seated ethnic and religious hostilities but also
experience vastly different possibilities when it comes to access [13] to land and water. Add
the stresses of climate change to such situations and you can naturally expect
passions to boil over.
Climate change will degrade or destroy [14] many natural systems [15], often
already under stress, on which humans rely for their survival. Some areas that
now support agriculture or animal husbandry may become uninhabitable or capable
only of providing for greatly diminished populations. Under the pressure of
rising temperatures and increasingly fierce droughts, the southern fringe of
the Sahara desert, for example, is now being transformed [16] from
grasslands capable of sustaining nomadic herders into an empty wasteland,
forcing local nomads off their ancestral lands. Many existing farmlands in
Africa, Asia, and the Middle East will suffer a similar fate. Rivers that once
supplied water year-round will run only sporadically or dry up [17] altogether,
again leaving populations with unpalatable choices.
As the IPCC report points out, enormous pressure will be put upon
often weak state institutions to adjust to climate change and aid those in
desperate need of emergency food, shelter, and other necessities. “Increased
human insecurity,” the report says, “may coincide with a decline in the
capacity of states to conduct effective adaptation efforts, thus creating the
circumstances in which there is greater potential for violent conflict.”
A good example of this peril is provided by the outbreak of civil
war in Syria and the subsequent collapse of that country in a welter of
fighting and a wave of refugees of a sort that hasn’t been seen since World War
II. Between 2006 and 2010, Syria experienced a devastating drought [18] in
which climate change is believed to have been a factor, turning nearly 60% of
the country into desert. Crops failed and most of the country’s livestock
perished, forcing millions of farmers into penury. Desperate and unable to live
on their land any longer, they moved [19] into
Syria’s major cities in search of work, often facing extreme hardship [20] as
well as hostility from well-connected urban elites.
Had Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad responded with an emergency
program of jobs and housing for those displaced, perhaps conflict could have
been averted. Instead, he cut food and fuel subsidies, adding to the misery of
the migrants and fanning the flames of revolt. In the view [21] of several prominent
scholars, “the rapidly growing urban peripheries of Syria, marked by illegal
settlements, overcrowding, poor infrastructure, unemployment, and crime, were
neglected by the Assad government and became the heart of the developing
unrest.”
A similar picture has unfolded in the Sahel region of Africa, the
southern fringe of the Sahara, where severe drought has combined with habitat
decline and government neglect to provoke armed violence. The area has faced
many such periods in the past, but now, thanks to climate change, there is less
time between the droughts. “Instead of 10 years apart, they became five years
apart, and now only a couple years apart,” observes [18] Robert
Piper, the United Nations regional humanitarian coordinator for the Sahel. “And
that, in turn, is putting enormous stresses on what is already an incredibly
fragile environment and a highly vulnerable population.”
In Mali, one of several nations straddling this region, the
nomadic Tuaregs [22] have
been particularly hard hit [23], as the
grasslands they rely on to feed their cattle are turning into desert. A
Berber-speaking Muslim population, the Tuaregs have long faced hostility from
the central government in Bamako, once controlled by the French and now by
black Africans of Christian or animist faith. With their traditional
livelihoods in peril and little assistance forthcoming from the capital, the
Tuaregs revolted [24] in
January 2012, capturing half of Mali before being driven back into the Sahara
by French and other foreign forces (with U.S. logistical and intelligence support [25]).
Consider the events in Syria and Mali previews of what is likely
to come later in this century on a far larger scale. As climate change
intensifies, bringing not just desertification but rising sea levels in
low-lying coastal areas and increasingly devastating heat waves [26] in
regions that are already hot, ever more parts of the planet will be rendered
less habitable, pushing millions of people into desperate flight.
While the strongest and wealthiest governments, especially in more
temperate regions, will be better able to cope with these stresses, expect to
see the number of failed states [27] grow
dramatically, leading to violence and open warfare over what food, arable land,
and shelter remains. In other words, imagine significant parts of the planet in
the kind of state that Libya, Syria, and Yemen are in today. Some people will
stay and fight to survive; others will migrate, almost assuredly encountering a
far more violent version of the hostility [28] we
already see toward immigrants and refugees in the lands they head for. The
result, inevitably, will be a global epidemic of resource civil wars and
resource violence of every sort.
Water Wars
Most of these conflicts will be of an internal, civil character:
clan against clan, tribe against tribe, sect against sect. On a climate-changed
planet, however, don’t rule out struggles among nations for diminished vital resources—especially
access to water. It’s already clear that climate change will reduce [29] the
supply of water in many tropical and subtropical regions, jeopardizing the
continued pursuit of agriculture, the health and functioning of major cities [30], and possibly
the very sinews of society.
The risk of “water wars [31]” will
arise when two or more countries depend on the same key water source—the Nile,
the Jordan, the Euphrates, the Indus, the Mekong, or other trans-boundary river
systems—and one or more of them seek to appropriate a disproportionate share of
the ever-shrinking supply of its water. Attempts by countries to build dams and
divert the water flow of such riverine systems have already provoked [32] skirmishes
and threats of war, as when Turkey and Syria erected dams on the Euphrates, constraining
the downstream flow.
One system that has attracted particular concern in this regard is
the Brahmaputra River [33], which
originates in China (where it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo) and passes
through India and Bangladesh before emptying into the Indian Ocean. China has
already erected [34] one
dam on the river and has plans for more, producing considerable unease in
India, where the Brahmaputra’s water is vital for agriculture. But what has
provoked the most alarm is a Chinese plan [35] to
channel water from that river to water-scarce areas in the northern part of
that country.
The Chinese insist that no such action is imminent, but
intensified warming and increased drought could, in the future, prompt such a
move, jeopardizing India’s water supply and possibly provoking a conflict.
“China’s construction of dams and the proposed diversion of the Brahmaputra’s
waters is not only expected to have repercussions for water flow, agriculture,
ecology, and lives and livelihoods downstream,” Sudha Ramachandran writes [34] in The
Diplomat, “it could also become another contentious issue undermining
Sino-Indian relations.”
Of course, even in a future of far greater water stresses, such
situations are not guaranteed to provoke armed combat. Perhaps the states
involved will figure out how to share whatever limited resources remain and seek
alternative means of survival. Nonetheless, the temptation to employ force is
bound to grow as supplies dwindle and millions of people face thirst and
starvation. In such circumstances, the survival of the state itself will be at
risk, inviting desperate measures.
Lowering the Temperature
There is much that undoubtedly could be done to reduce the risk of
water wars, including the adoption of cooperative water-management schemes and
the introduction of the wholesale use of drip irrigation [36] and
related processes that use water far more efficiently. However, the best way to
avoid future climate-related strife is, of course, to reduce the pace of global
warming. Every fraction of a degree less warming achieved in Paris and
thereafter will mean that much less blood spilled in future climate-driven
resource wars.
This is why the Paris climate summit should be viewed as a kind of
preemptive peace conference, one that is taking place before the wars truly
begin. If delegates to COP-21 succeed in sending us down a path that limits
global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, the risk of future violence will be
diminished accordingly. Needless to say, even 2 degrees of warming guarantees [37] substantial
damage to vital natural systems, potentially severe resource scarcities, and
attendant civil strife. As a result, a lower ceiling for temperature rise would
be preferable and should be the goal of future conferences. Still, given the
carbon emissions pouring [38] into
the atmosphere, even a 2-degree cap would be a significant accomplishment.
To achieve such an outcome, delegates will undoubtedly have to
begin dealing with conflicts of the present moment as well, including those in
Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Ukraine, in order to collaborate in devising common,
mutually binding climate measures. In this sense, too, the Paris summit will be
a peace conference. For the first time, the nations of the world will have to
step beyond national thinking and embrace a higher goal: the safety of the
ecosphere and all its human inhabitants, no matter their national, ethnic,
religious, racial, or linguistic identities. Nothing like this has ever been
attempted, which means that it will be an exercise in peacemaking of the most
essential sort—and, for once, before the wars truly begin.
Michael T. Klare [39] Twitter [40] Michael
T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire
College and the defense correspondent of The Nation.
Copyright c 2015 The Nation. [41] Reprinted
with permission. May not be reprinted without permission. Please Support our
Journalism. Distributed by Agence Global.
Links:
[1] http://www.cop21paris.org/about/cop21
[2] http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php
[3] http://www.carbonbrief.org/two-degrees-the-history-of-climate-changes-speed-limit/
[4] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/extreme-heatwaves-could-push-gulf-climate-beyond-human-endurance-study-shows
[5] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/scientists-predict-huge-sea-level-rise-even-if-we-limit-climate-change
[6] http://nypost.com/2014/03/30/climate-change-will-push-world-into-war-un-report
[7] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
[8] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10733764/IPCC-report-No-one-will-be-untouched-by-climate-change.html
[9] http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/30/ipcc_2014_u_n_climate_change_report_warns_of_dire_consequences.html
[10] http://www.amazon.com/dp/0805055762/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20
[11] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/world/middleeast/fears-of-new-intifada-accompany-surge-in-mideast-violence.html
[12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Mount
[13] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-11101797
[14] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/01/science/earth/climate.html
[15] http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176054/tomgram%3A_michael_klare,_tipping_points_and_the_question_of_civilizational_survival/
[16] http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/environment-book/desertificationinsahel.html
[17] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/16/AR2007061600461.html
[18] http://www.npr.org/2013/09/08/220438728/how-could-a-drought-spark-a-civil-war
[19] http://www.irinnews.org/report/85963/syria-drought-driving-farmers-to-the-cities
[20] http://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/
[21] http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241
[22] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuareg_people
[23] http://www.economist.com/node/21550324
[24] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mali_conflict
[25] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-aid-to-french-mission-in-mali/2013/01/26/3d56bb5c-6821-11e2-83c7-38d5fac94235_story.html
[26] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/science/intolerable-heat-may-hit-the-middle-east-by-the-end-of-the-century.html
[27] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/colin-j-fleming/climate-terror-global-war_b_427608.html
[28] http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Refugees-Immigrants-Met-with-Racist-Violence-Across-Europe-20151023-0015.html
[29] http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/12/16/study-climate-change-could-put-millions-more-at-risk-of-water-scarcity
[30] http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/oct/22/why-water-running-out/
[31] http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/8/the-coming-water-wars/
[32] http://e360.yale.edu/feature/mideast_water_wars_in_iraq_a_battle_for_control_of_water/2796/
[33] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brahmaputra_River
[34] http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/water-wars-china-india-and-the-great-dam-rush/
[35] http://japanfocus.org/-Brahma-Chellaney/2458/article.html
[36] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drip_irrigation
[37] http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2013/12/hansen-2-degree-c-goal-for-global-warming-disastrous/
[38] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/06/global-carbon-dioxide-levels-break-400ppm-milestone
[39] http://www.thenation.com/authors/michael-t-klare/
[40] https://twitter.com/@mklare1
[41] http://www.thenation.com
[1] http://www.cop21paris.org/about/cop21
[2] http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php
[3] http://www.carbonbrief.org/two-degrees-the-history-of-climate-changes-speed-limit/
[4] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/extreme-heatwaves-could-push-gulf-climate-beyond-human-endurance-study-shows
[5] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/scientists-predict-huge-sea-level-rise-even-if-we-limit-climate-change
[6] http://nypost.com/2014/03/30/climate-change-will-push-world-into-war-un-report
[7] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
[8] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10733764/IPCC-report-No-one-will-be-untouched-by-climate-change.html
[9] http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/30/ipcc_2014_u_n_climate_change_report_warns_of_dire_consequences.html
[10] http://www.amazon.com/dp/0805055762/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20
[11] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/world/middleeast/fears-of-new-intifada-accompany-surge-in-mideast-violence.html
[12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Mount
[13] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-11101797
[14] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/01/science/earth/climate.html
[15] http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176054/tomgram%3A_michael_klare,_tipping_points_and_the_question_of_civilizational_survival/
[16] http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/environment-book/desertificationinsahel.html
[17] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/16/AR2007061600461.html
[18] http://www.npr.org/2013/09/08/220438728/how-could-a-drought-spark-a-civil-war
[19] http://www.irinnews.org/report/85963/syria-drought-driving-farmers-to-the-cities
[20] http://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/
[21] http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241
[22] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuareg_people
[23] http://www.economist.com/node/21550324
[24] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mali_conflict
[25] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-aid-to-french-mission-in-mali/2013/01/26/3d56bb5c-6821-11e2-83c7-38d5fac94235_story.html
[26] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/science/intolerable-heat-may-hit-the-middle-east-by-the-end-of-the-century.html
[27] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/colin-j-fleming/climate-terror-global-war_b_427608.html
[28] http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Refugees-Immigrants-Met-with-Racist-Violence-Across-Europe-20151023-0015.html
[29] http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/12/16/study-climate-change-could-put-millions-more-at-risk-of-water-scarcity
[30] http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/oct/22/why-water-running-out/
[31] http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/8/the-coming-water-wars/
[32] http://e360.yale.edu/feature/mideast_water_wars_in_iraq_a_battle_for_control_of_water/2796/
[33] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brahmaputra_River
[34] http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/water-wars-china-india-and-the-great-dam-rush/
[35] http://japanfocus.org/-Brahma-Chellaney/2458/article.html
[36] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drip_irrigation
[37] http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2013/12/hansen-2-degree-c-goal-for-global-warming-disastrous/
[38] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/06/global-carbon-dioxide-levels-break-400ppm-milestone
[39] http://www.thenation.com/authors/michael-t-klare/
[40] https://twitter.com/@mklare1
[41] http://www.thenation.com
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